Australia’s Economic Reform Roundtable August 21-25, Canberra – a focus on Productivity
Decades of strong and continuous growth cemented Australia’s reputation as the “lucky country.” Most Australians took this economic exceptionalism for granted. And who could blame them? It was just a fact of life. While economic engines elsewhere faltered with bursting bubbles and financial crises, Australia powered ahead. Yet, around 2016, Australia’s economic engine started running out of puff and is now at risk of stalling. In the golden years (1993–2016), per capita GDP grew at 1.8 per cent a year. The post-2016 growth rate has averaged just 0.6 per cent, and, since 2020, it has been negative. Above decks, many missed the trouble brewing in the engine room. An extended mining boom, strong population growth, and a massive stimulus bump during the pandemic years kept the party going. Optimism prevailed: This is Australia, things are different here, and “she’ll be right, mate.” Up on the bridge in Canberra, lagging indicators masked slowing underlying momentum. Inflation, terms of trade, and immigration propped up headline economic numbers and the budget. At the same time, the passengers—especially older, first-class passengers—were buoyed by some of the world’s highest house prices. Since 2008, the average net wealth of Australians has doubled, remaining on par with the United States as the highest per capita among major economies. As much as 70 per cent of this increase came from property values. Spending by older home-owning cohorts remains healthy, while younger Australians—who have record-low home ownership—are tightening their belts. Now, Australia’s economic doldrums are increasingly apparent. In recent years, living standards in Australia have declined faster than in any other developed economy. Consumer prices, mortgage interest repayments, and income tax have increased sharply. At the same time, Australian real incomes are 2 per cent below their pre-pandemic high, while those of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development […]