China has moved to curb supply of critical minerals. Can Australia seize the moment?
Marina Yue Chang, Associate Professor, Technology and Innovation, University of Technology Sydney. In the escalating trade war between the United States and China, one notable exception stood out: 31 critical minerals, including rare earth elements, were strategically exempted from tariffs. This was not a gesture of goodwill. It was a tacit acknowledgment of the United States’ deep dependence on China for materials essential to its technological competitiveness, clean energy transition and national defence. Beijing’s response was swift and calculated. China’s Ministry of Commerce announced expanded export controls and a shift in pricing principles. The move reflects China’s long-standing effort to shift rare earth pricing from market supply and demand to pricing based on their strategic value. The impact was immediate. Rare earth exports from China effectively ground to a halt, as exporters awaited approvals under a new, opaque licensing regime. The announcement prompted President Trump to issue a new executive order directing a review of national security risks stemming from the US reliance on imported, processed critical minerals. As global supply chains reel from these disruptions, Australia finds itself in a unique strategic position. As a trusted US ally, it possesses the resources, partnerships and political capital to step into the breach. But can Australia seize this opportunity – or will it come with strings attached? China’s new playbook China’s latest restrictions target seven rare earths – such as dysprosium and terbium – crucial for electric vehicles, wind turbines, fighter jets and missile systems. While stopping short of a full export ban, the policy functions as a chokepoint. It leverages China’s near-total global control of rare earth refining (around 90%) and its monopoly on heavy rare earth processing (98%). Domestically, China’s rare earth sector is dominated by two state-owned giants which together control nearly 100% of national mining quotas. These measures have exposed the vulnerability of Western supply chains. The US has only one operational rare earth mine […]