The secret of productivity growth is not technology
The idea that technology drives productivity growth is both a commonplace and a common frustration. Economies operating at or near the technological frontier have long seen sagging trend growth rates despite marvellous technology – from artificial intelligence to bioengineering to robotics – proliferating at breakneck speed. This matters because productivity, or output per input, pays for higher wages and is the foundation of long-run prosperity. In that sense, it matters most in rich economies where higher productivity growth would allow political debates to shift from (re-)distributing a relatively stagnant economic pie to sharing a growing one. Yet, there is an often-overlooked factor in the debate about technology and growth. Yes, technology undoubtedly plays a critical role, but we should think of it as the fuel of productivity growth. The spark is provided by tight labour markets, i.e. when firms are forced to better utilise technology because they cannot add labour easily. So how can cyclical tightness spur productivity growth? Which types of economies are set to benefit from this relationship? And why should policymakers see tight labour markets as both an opportunity and risk? Understanding the spark of productivity growth Availability is often not enough to prompt broad adoption and utilisation of technology – integration can be costly and there may be implementation risks. It is often easier for firms to continue to grow with the next incremental hire. When labour markets are tight and wage growth runs above long-run trends, however, firms will face downward pressure on margins even when revenue is growing. Such a pressure cooker economy can force executives, managers and workers to adopt and better utilise existing technology, instead of looking to an expensive labour market for extra capacity. The fuel of productivity growth is global, but the spark is local While the frontier of technology can diffuse […]