We could need six times more of the minerals used for renewables and batteries
Rusty Langdon,Senior Research Consultant, Institute for Sustainable Futures, University of Technology Sydney; Elsa Dominish, Research Principal, Institute for Sustainable Futures, University of Technology Sydney. We are seeing the biggest changes in our energy and transport systems since industrialisation. By 2026, global renewable energy generation is expected to match total fossil fuel and nuclear output. Building the wind and solar farms, batteries and electricity networks we need to run our system on renewables will use a huge array of mined minerals, known as “transition minerals”. The numbers are staggering. The International Energy Agency estimates a sixfold increase in demand for these minerals by 2040 to meet climate targets of well below 2℃ of warming. We could need 21.5 million tonnes for electric vehicles and battery storage alone. Transitional minerals include metals such as lithium, cobalt, copper, graphite, magnesium and nickel. They also include rare earths like neodymium, praseodymium, dysprosium and terbium. Currently, mining provides almost our entire supply. The scale of demand for these minerals could result in almost 400 new mines by 2035. To put this in perspective, Australia has around 350 operating mines. More than 50% of the world’s lithium and much of its copper, cobalt, nickel and rare earths come from our mines. Australia is hosting the World Mining Congress this week. A key issue for the industry is how we can ensure the minerals needed for the energy transition are sourced responsibly. How can we manage demand? We can design energy and transport systems to minimise mineral demand. Strategies include: reducing our dependence on cars and using smaller vehicles improving energy efficiency moving to a circular economy that makes reuse and recycling a priority. All these changes can reduce the need for new mines. Recycling, for example, could reduce demand for mined materials. For lithium-ion batteries for electric vehicles, estimated reductions are 25% for lithium, 35% for cobalt and nickel, […]