CSIRO Australian National Outlook 2019
Australia’s future prosperity will require bold action on a number of fronts and a deliberate commitment to careful and considered long-term thinking. Author James Deverell, Director, CSIRO Futures Australia’s future prosperity is at risk unless we take bold action and commit to long-term thinking. This is the key message contained in the Australian National Outlook 2019 (ANO 2019), a report published today by CSIRO and its partners. The research used a scenario approach to model different visions of Australia in 2060. We contrasted two core scenarios: a base case called Slow Decline, and an Outlook Vision scenario which represents what Australia could achieve. These scenarios took account of 13 different national issues, as well as two global contexts relating to trade and action on climate change. We found there are profound differences in long-term outcomes between these two scenarios. In the Slow Decline scenario, Australia fails to adequately address identified challenges. CSIRO, Author provided The Outlook Vision scenario shows what could be possible if Australia meets identified challenges. CSIRO, Author provided Slow decline versus a new outlook Australia’s living standards – as measured by Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita – could be 36% higher in 2060 in the Outlook Vision, compared with Slow Decline. This translates into a 90% increase in average wages (in real terms, adjusted for inflation) from today. Australia’s real GDP per capita in 2016, and the modelled outcomes for Slow Decline and Outlook Vision. In Outlook Vision, the darker shade shows outcomes under a cooperative global context and the lighter shade under a fractious global context. CSIRO, Author provided Australia could maintain its world-class, highly liveable cities, while increasing its population to 41 million people by 2060. Urban congestion could be reduced, with per capita passenger vehicle travel 45% lower than today in the Outlook Vision. Australia could achieve net-zero emissions by […]